I'm on the WatkinSofa in Grantham and Christopher Watkin doesn't waste any time. He wants to know what happens to estate agents in a tougher housing market.
"Question is this: the last two years in estate agency has been absolutely easy, like shelling peas."
"Yep," I say. Then I give him the picture I've been carrying round in my head. "So here's my view, okay. We've had summer."
Chris reaches for Game of Thrones and Sean Bean telling everyone winter's coming. "I've never watched it, but yeah," I tell him. "But winter is coming. Are you ready for it?"
We filmed that in June 2022 and it went out that September. I'm not going to pretend I knew exactly what the market would do next. I didn't, and I said so at the time. The advice underneath it didn't depend on getting the forecast right.
We've had summer
I told Chris why I thought the last few years had been so busy. Christmas is normally what gets a lot of people moving. Either they decide they love each other and want to move in together, or they can't stand each other anymore and someone needs to move out. "Lockdowns were basically extended Christmases, weren't they?"
Even where nobody's relationship changed, being stuck indoors made people ask whether the home they were in was the right one. Add stamp duty changes and low interest rates on top and you had a market being propped up from several directions.
My view was that it was changing, and quickly. "Right now we're in autumn." Fuel and energy costs were going up and being passed on to everything else. And I thought we were only just starting to see what the pandemic had done to businesses outside estate agency.
I'd done quite a lot of work with personal trainers and gyms. Some of the gyms I'd worked with weren't there anymore. When members couldn't go, they stopped paying. I'd seen the same pattern in retail, and hospitality had obviously been hit hard.
"I think the market's about to get harder. Thing is, it doesn't look like it yet." Stock was going before agents had a chance to do anything with it. When things feel that easy, it's hard to believe they won't stay that way.
Be the voice of property
So what should agents do? "My own view, market like you're in winter already."
It's the same thing I'd told people during the pandemic. Even if you'd furloughed everyone, don't disappear. When there's news coming out, talk about it. You can say you don't know what's going to be announced in two weeks and still tell people where things stand today. "Be the voice of property in your area."
Chris had been talking for ages about agents being like the local mayor. I said do it now, rather than waiting until interest rates have jumped and the market's already shifting. People had moved based on the incomes, interest rates and energy costs they had at the time. If costs spiralled and unemployment went up, businesses would struggle. I couldn't guarantee it, but there was a lot of talk of recession, and that's what happens in one.
Chris made the point that even if none of it happened, being out there would still give you an edge. I agreed. Being the most marketed agent in your area is never going to hurt you. The trouble was that plenty of agents felt they didn't need to bother because it was all too easy. They'd just chuck their listings out.
Time on the business
Chris asked whether agents were too busy in the business to step back and work on it. If you own or lead the business, ask yourself how much of your week goes on the day-to-day. If it's too much, make the time. Hire someone if you need to. And when you block that time out, ring-fence it. (I've written more about scheduling time to work on your business.)
"The most important diary entry you'll ever have is the one where you're working on yourself and working on the business." It isn't the one where you jump in to help someone because you've done their job before.
Accountability helps. That's one of the reasons to have a coach, but it doesn't have to be someone you pay. Another agent in a town where you don't compete would do.
Then I went off on a bit of a tangent about lottery winners. A frightening number end up broke, because they didn't make the money and don't realise how fast it's going. A young business that's only ever known good times is in a similar spot. "And if you leave it until it's too late, it's too late."
Watch the full chat
First published September 2022 on Christopher Watkin's Letting Agent Podcast.
